Much like Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, the Rose Revolution in Georgia was more unified in what it opposed than in what it wanted. Today, former allies of the Rose Revolution are bitter political enemies. President Mikheil Saakashvili, a key U.S. ally and a leader of the Revolution, has seen his support decline since Georgia’s disastrous war with Russia last August.

Saakashvili was wildly popular when first elected in 2004, but he now faces strong, though fractious opposition throughout the country. He’s accused of a long list of political abuses. A partial accounting includes: election tampering, using force against protesters, staging a ‘terrorist’ attack during the last elections, and censoring media to exclude the opposition. Supporters of the president point out, however, that these claims of censorship are generally made on nationally-broadcast TV stations. Also, print media is generally hostile to Saakashvili, which belies too strong a claim to censorship. Nevertheless, Freedom House downgraded Georgia from “free” to “partly free” in 2008, based largely on concerns about electoral democracy.

Opposition groups are planning a massive series of protests for April 9th, a date with strong national associations. It was on April 9th, 1989 that the Soviets cracked down on a Georgian pro-independence protest. Opposition figures are calling for the resignation of Saakashvili, and hope to use the April “mass permanent meeting” to springboard such a development.

The political stakes have definitely risen in the past few days. Internal security agents have begun arresting opposition figures, nine from Nino Burdzhanadze’s party, and two others from a minor party, for attempting to buy weaponry. Saakashvili claims that opponents are planning a military coup against his administration. The opposition, meanwhile, ridicules the charges, arguing that Saakashvili is building a case so that he can crackdown on the upcoming protests.

What gives some credibility to Saakashvili are a pair of videos released by the government which appear to show opposition figures planning a coup. I’m linking them up without comment, because I neither speak Georgian nor have the technical knowledge to spot tampering.

From the perspective of American national interests, this seems to be something of a blue-on-blue fight. Both Saakashvili and his primary opponent, former Rose revolutionary Nino Burdzhanadze, orient toward the United States. Much as with Ukraine, it’s heartbreaking to see fratricide, when the real threat to both Georgia and Ukraine stems from Russia. But politics is always messy, cultural change comes slowly, and revolutions usually disappoint their participants. Best to take a long view when it comes to politics in the former Soviet Union.